Unfortunately (depending on how you look at it?), I will not release my team roster until the season begins for security purposes. In this case, think of yourself going through an airport screening, and taking off your clothes. How would you feel if that was your fantasy baseball roster? And remember to not leave your luggage unattended either.

I will point out a few problems with the NFBC Main Draft, and other things I noticed:
First, Joe Mauer and Mike Napoli dropped WAY DOWN the board. Let’s recall, this draft was on March 21. Surely, they were both injury concerns. However, one week later: it appears neither of them will miss much time. This is why I am 99% against drafting two weeks before the season starts. I can not imagine drafting even earlier than that. Hence, the bargains on Mauer and Napoli may lead those teams to a league title.

Next, the closers who had their jobs locked up heading in…also went fast. I had to jump in and get a few myself. I never understand why they go so high in drafts. For the most part, they are 1 category performers in 5×5 leagues. Sure, I suppose they can keep the ERA and WHIP down too, but that is only if you get one of the dominant closers. Below, I will fill you in on the approach I generally use when drafting.

I do not worry about 1st or 2nd round picks. To me, a bad pick in the first round can affect your team as much as one in the 15th round. Therefore, I concentrate more on the middle and end  picks, because that is where I believe, it is won or lost.

On another note, I am not afraid of “reaching”. What do I mean by this? I will take a guy a few rounds early if I think he is worth it. I do not wait. If you are confident a player will be good, then take him where you want. I can’t begin to count how many times I missed on a player I was targeting; only to watch him rack up the stats all year. That is a bad feeling! Whether, I win or lose: it will be with the players I was targeting. Simple as that!

If you are interested in playing in a mid-season league with the NFBC or next year (there is also the NFFC for fantasy football, then here is a link: http://www.fantasybaseballchampionship.com/

That’s all for today folks!

RSW

The Braves SP Hanson dominated Double A ball last year, leading the minors in opponent batting average (.175) and was 2nd in K’s/9 at 10.6; including a 14 strikeout no-hitter. As impressive as the pre-mentioned numbers are, Hanson was even more dominant in fall ball; going 5-0 with a .63 ERA and fanning 49 in 28 innings to become the first ever pitcher named MVP of the Arizona Fall league.

This spring, Hanson has picked up where he left off last fall. The 6′6″ righty struck out 7 in 4 innings against the defending world champions and is making a case for a spot in the rotation. Although, it may be unlikely that the 22 year old will make the opening day roster; he will certainly be the Braves first alternative.

Hanson is a must have in all keeper leagues and worthy of a late round flier in most re-draft leagues. Spare the roster spot! This kid may help you win a title come September.

What will separate your team from your opponents are the players you pick up long after Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes’ fates have been decided for the season. Since this is important to your team, and because you might have a life outside of the Baltimore Orioles’ minor league system, here are some players to watch when it’s getting late to give you a leg up on the competition, and fill in some holes.

Matt Wieters - C, Baltimore - In case you’ve had something else to do for the last couple of weeks, Wieters is the new flavor of the week for fantasy baseball nerds. Wieters may be this year’s Evan Longoria - the can’t-miss-kid who has sky-high potential that he’s expected to realize right away, after tearing up the minor leagues. Much like Longoria last year, Wieters will start the season in AAA for contract reasons, and then is expected to be called up in June; when he will become your new favorite player like Longoria did for my team last year. Pick him up in the late rounds, or don’t draft him, and keep an eye on him if no one picks him, and get him as a free agent the minute he’s called up.

Francisco Liriano - SP, Minnesota - One of the more well known ’sleepers,’ Liriano has missed most of the past two seasons after Tommy John surgery, but is healthy now by all accounts. If he returns to his 2006 form (12 wins and 144 strikeouts in only 16 starts, 2.16 ERA), you’ll be glad you got him after the Johan Santanas of the world were gone.

Adam Lind - OF, Toronto - If it starts to get late, and you realize you still need an outfielder, Lind may be the ace up your sleeve. He hasn’t completely set the world ablaze yet (9 HR, 40 RBI, .282 AVG in 326 AB last year), but he looked like a different player after the mid-season managerial change in Toronto last year. Lind had a very strong second half, showed great improvement and power potential, and is expected to play every day this season.

Orlando Hudson - 2B, L.A. Dodgers - Second base is a surprisingly deep position right now, but if you’re in a deep league and miss the boat on the best ones, think about Orlando Hudson. Hudson has faced injury troubles in recent years, but did hit .305 with Arizona last year, and hit 15 homeruns in 2006. If healthy, Hudson hits for a solid average, and a quality Dodgers lineup should allow him to score some runs.

Troy Glaus - 3B, St. Louis - Troy Glaus risks a trip to the disabled list when he bends over to tie his shoes. However, he stayed healthy for a full season with the Cardinals last year, and put up quality numbers as a result (29 HR, 99 RBI, .270 AVG). Glaus’ ability is still there, but his durability will force most people to steer clear. If you’re feeling lucky, and he’s feeling healthy, 30 homeruns and 100 RBI are well within reach for Glaus. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you if he can’t stay in the lineup.

What’s most important to remember is that true speed numbers are much more difficult to assess than power numbers. Speed is based largely on the player, but also on the manager and the makeup of the team. A player may have speed potential, but the manager may be less willing to take risks on the basepaths. The opposite holds true as well. Take Lance Berkman, who significantly boosted his fantasy value last season by stealing bases, something most owners did not expect when they drafted him.
Power, on the other hand, is much easier to assess because it is not dependent on how the manager feels, but on how the player hits. We know Adam Dunn is and will always be a power guy, but can we be sure how much running even a fantasy juggernaut like A-Rod will do? Not really, especially given the addition of a power bat in Tex and how A-Rod and the Yankees handle his recovery from his hip injury. He may very well still steal bases still, but we can’t be totally sure.

Speed can be had later this year, as their are many options available for speed late, whereas power will be much harder to find in the later rounds. Guys like Carlos Gomez and Fred Lewis will most likely be available on your league’s waiver wire, whereas a power bat will be near impossible to find unless you can trade for one. The old notion that you can’t leave your draft without speed no longer holds true. You must have power when you leave the draft this year. If you don’t, you’ll be playing catch-up all season.

Jose Reyes steals 2nd

It’s not like he didn’t show us how uninterested he was in baseball at that point, as his focus was on the buffet line instead. This year the guy I won’t touch in any draft is Jorge Posada. While Posada may have more heart than Jones, if you are drafting a catcher late, go with anyone other than Posada. The 37 year old catcher is aging fast and will most likely not play every day, splitting time between Jose Molina and possibly young prospect Francisco Cervelli. When you take into consideration that besides his amazing 2007, Posada has been a very average catcher at best, posting no better than a .287 average in any other season, you have to question your choice of Posada if you have waited until late in the draft to grab a catcher.

Personally, I’m much more apt to choose guys like Ramon Hernandez, Chris Iannetta, or even Jeff Clement. There isn’t much upside to Posada, because your hope for his success lies in his health, and it is doubtful Posada will be able to be effective the entire season.

Let’s move on to Manny. He finally signed his mega contract with the Dodgers. I was a little surprised that no other teams moved in as he was sparring with the Dodgers over $1.5 million. However, he is an expensive investment with major risk to the chemistry of any team. As fantasy owners, we don’t really care about the contract or the team chemistry, as long as Manny is playing. He’s obviously still Fantasy Baseball elite.

What about the World Baseball Classic?  I’m actually really enjoying watching it. I watched the USA vs. Canada game, and it was nice to see competitive baseball this early in the season. It gives us Fantasy owners a little glimpse into some of our prospects for the season. Will player performances in the WBC impact your player rankings? Some of the players are saying it has a playoff type atmosphere. Is that a good or a bad thing this early in the season? On the flip side, I cringe every time a batter gets hit by a pitch and every time someone slides hard into 2nd. I’m just hoping that we don’t lose any FBB studs due to injury in the WBC. Chipper Jones suffered a strained oblique muscle and will rest for 5 days. Hopefully he’ll be fine. My fingers will be crossed for the rest of the WBC.

I’m going to continue to watch the WBC and spring training games and start to get my final player rankings together. I’ll share them with you once I have them pretty much solidified. Be sure to check back regularly for updates as the season draws near.

Our Sports Talk 60 road trip through Florida is coming to an end. After catching last night’s Tampa Bay/Pittsburgh hockey game we are heading North back to Michigan on this sunny afternoon. On the way we will once again stop in Lakeland and visit Tiger town. All together we have put in over 400 miles on Florida roads visiting whatt we could in way of spring training and sports.  The sad mood down here is the loss of the 2 NFL and 1 college player who apparently have been lost at sea on their fishing trip. The rescue of one of those is the only bright spot in the tragedy.  It affects us here  at Sports talk 60 since we cover the Lions and have talked to Cory Smith in Camp and during the season.  The bags are packed and its time to head back since we have a show to do on friday.

Check out more of John Thiede at SportsTalk60.com

1.  Is Adam Everett really going to be the starting SS for the Tigers?

The days are long gone where a team can start a defensive specialist with no bat.  It just doesn’t work in this day and age.  The Royals tried it for a few years with Tony Pena, Jr., but eventually realized they had Mike Aviles (and his bat) at AAA.  However, KC is not Detroit.  The Tigers have expectations and if the team struggles, no one looks at “zone factor” — they look at your offensive statistics.  And Adam Everett will have an ugly looking batting line.

So…what do I think will happen?  Enter Ramon Santiago.  The one time “future” at SS for the Tigers is 29 year old utility infielder.  However,  in limited at bats last year he showed some offensive growth.   He slugged 0.460 and had a 0.411 OBP in 124 at bats, with more BBs than Ks.  I would not be surprised in the least if Santiago exceeds 300 at bats this year.  If you have a deep reserve list, consider rostering Santiago.

2.  Who are the bench players for the Tigers?

When a team rosters Gary Sheffield and Carlos Guillen, knowledge of their back-ups are important.  I am drafting reserve players in a league right now and I’d like to know that, but I don’t.  And neither does Jim Leyland.  Certainly Clete Thomas would be a favorite, but he’ll be limited during the Spring after coming off TJ surgery.  Obviously Marcus Thames will have a roster spot, but what about Jeff Larish, Mike Hessman , Brent Clevlen and Ryan Raburn?  My guess is that Larish will make the roster as he is a left-handed batter with pop in a line-up heavy on the right-handed hitters (Inge, Laird, Ordonez, Cabrera, Polanco, Everett, Sheffield) plus Thames (their top pinch-hitter) is right-handed.  After that, it’s anyone’s guess.  Whoever has a good spring might use those 50 at bats to make the team.

by Don Visco of CrucialSports.com

What’s going to happen to A-Rod? He’s meeting with MLB brass sometime this week, so I hope he’s rehearsing his story.
Will there be additional fall out from “The List”? How many more fantasy powerhouses are going to be outed?
Will any Fantasy Baseball elite return to their teams with World Baseball Classic injuries?
Manny, Manny, Manny…what’s the dealio?
Any early spring training surprises?

I’ll be back soon with some more questions and hopefully some answers. Be sure to check back regularly for updates as the season draws near.